Ensemble Forecasting

• a method used to improve medium and long-range forecasts
• produce a model forecast from the same model or a couple models many times
• the initial model conditions are slightly different for each run to represent the "uncertainties" and "errors" inherent in the observations used to initialize the model
• if, at the end, all model runs produce a similar forecast, then a forecaster can have greater confidence in the model prediction.

EXAMPLE DATA:

• Various data plots from CDC

NCEP Ensemble Forecast Information

Learn more about ensemble forecasting from the Climate Diagnostics Center: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/

And more information on Ensembles can be found at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/ensemble.htm